Estimating Ireland’s long-run housing demand - April 2019

Projections of future housing demand provide an important input to housing policy. We have seen the role that population projections and the associated housing demand has had in preparing the National Planning Framework. This paper takes a longer-term perspective, looking at housing demand based on demographic trends out to 2051. We also look at how the projected household demand might divide amongst the different types of housing tenure – owner-occupancy, private sector rental and social housing/renting.

Key findings
· CSO projections show the population reaching 6 million by 2051;
· New household formation averages nearly 32,000 per annum between 2019 and 2051. This compares to previous estimates of 25,000 new households per annum;
· The number of households reaches close to 2.8m by 2051;
· More than half of these new households are headed by a person aged over 50 years old;
· Average household size declines to 2.12 persons per household by 2051;
· Pent-up demand between 2011 and 2018 amounts to nearly 65,000 units;
· Much of the growth in households will be in one or two-person households;
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